Happy New Year’s to you and yours.  It’s finally here … the much anticipated game against the Cayuts in the oversized barn in Lexington.

Worthy or Over-Rated?

Today’s the day we find out how good/bad our Cards are. I’m of the opinion we’re vastly over-rated and not even a top 15 team much less a top 5 one TODAY. That doesn’t mean it’ll be the same in March.

Deficiencies Exposed?

Our 3-point shooting has been poor, the defense has padded its stats against some poor competition, and we go through painful scoring droughts practically every game.

It’s been that way pretty much the entire time Rick Pitino has been here … I’ve been watching UofL basketball closely for more than 35 years now, and I am still clueless what the overall offensive strategy is under Rick.  Under Denny, you could count on the high post offense progressing just about every week.  With Pitino, you know a drought is coming every game, but you’re never quite sure exactly when.  It’s frustrating and puzzling about like the recruiting has been for his entire 11 years here.

Enough bitching, let’s talk about the game.

Most of the contingent I talk to believe the plan will be to ugly the game up like we attempted two years ago in Lexington when Bledsoe and Reggie Delk almost got into a fight before tipoff and Big Cuz planted an elbow to the back of Swopshire’s head although he got to stick around in spite of the cheap shot.

That strategy seemed to work pretty well against the more talented Cayuts then, but I’m not sure that’s how to beat this year’s newest ensemble of future NBA’ers.

What’s the Tempo?

I go back and forth on whether we ought to try to ugly it up by being ultra physical or run and expose their thin bench because that means more guys for us would have to play, and Rick seems to have a significant pucker factor when the competition stiffens.

Let’s get this out of the way … player for player, UK is far more talented.  Our advantages come via experience and playing in some tough venues every year thanks to the Big East. We should have an edge with depth, but that depends on the rotation the trusty coach elects to play.

The Talent Gap

UK has 4 sure pros (Kidd-Gilchrist, Davis, Jones, and Lamb) while UofL has hopes for maybe two down the road (Behanan and Gorgui).  Some suggest Siva will be a pro … I totally disagree because he’s too short, can’t hit the broad side of a barn, and makes poor decisions too frequently.  Plus, he falls down way too much so he’s going to be injury prone. Wayne Blackshear may be pro material, but he’s not even playing yet so it doesn’t matter in this game.

Turtle Head Teague hasn’t shown me much to warrant all the hype … he turns the ball over way too much although I hear UK fans snipping that Blue Beavis and Brandon Knight turned it over just as much.  Those two appeared to be far more talented than Turtle Head. We’ll see. One other thing … is it me or does Teague seem to have extra teeth rattling around in his mouth? Whatever the case, he’s got one messed up grill!!!

UofL Must Get Out of the Chute Fast

Regardless of the style or tempo we choose to play or the talent disparity, we need to get off to a good start. If you get that barn into a bigger frenzy than it’ll already be in before tipoff during the first part of the game, it’ll get ugly fast. UofL isn’t a good enough 3-point shooting team to overcome a huge deficit like some years, and we’re not good enough defensively to shut a team down for stretches like the back-to-back Elite 8 teams were.

Critical Cards

Gorgui has to stay out of foul trouble as does Siva.  If either of them get into early trouble, we’re toast.

Kyle needs to quit faking the jumper from the wing and let it fly! He needs to have a huge game from deep for us to hang.

It wouldn’t hurt if Russ and Chris Smith both shot the 3-ball well although I’m not saying 60% hot rather 35-40% hot.  Just not 11% or something crappy like that!

Keep it within 5 on the boards, too or shut out the lights.  Every rebound a team out-rebounds their opponent by usually equates to 1-1.5 points in spread on the scoreboard.  That’s what I typically look at to gauge the true pulse of a game.  So that means Chane Behanan needs to keep crashing the boards like a monster.

Who Do You Focus on for UK?

Everybody has been talking about who you try to shutdown for UK.  To me, it’s Lamb because he can kill you from deep.  Keep him under wraps (12 points or less) while holding everybody to their average or slightly below, and we can pull off a huge upset.  If a couple of their guys get loose for 20+ apiece, it’s going to be a very long 2+ hours and a less festive NYE.

Box-n-One?

I’m hopeful we play a match-up zone on 4 of their guys with a chaser on Lamb. Problem is, I don’t know who the chaser ought to be.  We don’t have a lock down man-to-man defender on our team.  If Kevin Ware were further along with his development, he has the physical makeup to be a good defender, but he’s looked rather lost in his limited action thus far. Maybe I’ve talked myself out of that “stellar” idea already … we just don’t defend the 3-point line very well so Lamb has me awfully worried.

Prediction

I’m not going to come on here and pretend like UofL is going to waltz into Rupp and steal one Saturday.  I do think it’ll be closer than the 50-55 point spread some of my UK friends promised after the football game earlier in the year.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say we play a faster tempo enough to get the game into the upper 70s and 80s although UK will win it 87-79. 

What do you think is going to happen? Share your opinion below and one more thing …

GO CARDS!!!!

Filed under: Basketball • UK

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